DEMS PLOT STRATEGY FOR A PROTRACTED BATTLE (Ben Smith, Politico) Analysts think it likely that the race will be resolved within the month, as one candidate or the other amasses unstoppable momentum. But the possibility that the race could go even longer – possibly much longer – remains distinct… Conventional wisdom holds that a tie favors Obama. The first round of votes after Super Tuesday comes Saturday, February 9, when two states – Washington and Nebraska – caucus, while Louisiana and the U.S. Virgin Islands stage primaries. Clinton’s campaign chairman, Terry McAuliffe, said yesterday that caucuses favor Obama, whose campaign has been shaped by grassroots enthusiasm and expensive organization… The other factor in the post-Super Tuesday weeks is race. With Obama winning 78 percent of African American votes in South Carolina, he will be hard to beat in heavily black states… Still, the same rules that could allow Obama – if no polling surge bears out – to survive defeat on Super Tuesday could help Clinton stay in the fight through a rough, momentum-killing month of February. For Clinton, the last stand would be Super Tuesday II: March 4, when the biggest cache of delegates since February 5 will be at stake in four primaries, led by Texas and Ohio.
ISSUES RECEDE IN ‘08 CONTEST AS VOTERS FOCUS ON CHARACTER (Gerald Seib, Wall Street Journal) As voting unfolds today on this Super Tuesday, the two hottest candidates at the moment – Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama – are most striking for their ability to appeal to independent voters in the middle of the ideological spectrum, and for their willingness to compromise to get there. In other words, the election of 2008, thus far, is less about ideology and ideas and more about governing style and leadership ability – intangible qualities on which voters are placing a higher priority than on issues. The tenor seems a reflection of the country’s mood: Many voters are in revolt against the partisan wars and bouts of gridlock that have gripped Washington in recent years, and are seeking effectiveness above all.
AS 24 STATES VOTE, A GRAB FOR DELEGATES, AND AN EDGE (Adam Nagourney, New York Times) There are two ways to approach the results. The first is old-fashioned: which candidates rack up the most states. But this is about more than popular vote totals; the point of these contests is to allocate delegates to the national conventions. Thus, the big question is how much attention to pay to the results map on television — lighted up with, say, states that have swung to Senator John McCain’s column — and how much attention to pay to the delegate counter. The answer is pay attention to both, though put somewhat more focus on states for the Republicans and put somewhat more on delegates for the Democrats. The delegate count might matter more officially, but the state results could count more politically, and that will be the central tension of the night.
8 QUESTIONS SUPER TUESDAY COULD ANSWER (Dan Balz, Washington Post) Will Either Race End Today? What Constitutes Victory? What States Bear Watching? Where Will Edwards’s Voters Go? Can Obama Win Latino Votes? Will Women Continue to Be Clinton’s Secret Weapon? Can McCain Win Conservatives And Pro-Bush Republicans? Which Democrat Is Positioned for A Long Campaign After Today?
ALMOST HUMAN (Rob Draper, GQ) Grinding the data, then fixing the problem—that’s who Mitt Romney was, and that’s precisely what he had been doing in his meticulously calculated but frequently turbulent rookie campaign for national office. His calculations had been painfully transparent. He’d moved to Mike Huckabee’s right in Iowa. He’d attempted to channel Barack “Change Agent” Obama in New Hampshire. And now, in Michigan, the Bain Capital cofounder, savior of the 2002 Winter Olympics, and deficit-busting governor had discovered a more authentic self—Turnaround Artist of Broken Institutions, Healer of Sick Economies—just in time to save his candidacy. Over and over that evening, his gurus were saying it: “He’s found his voice.” Yet even that was a borrowed sentiment; Hillary Clinton had said the same thing a week before, following her comeback victory in New Hampshire.
MEET THE NEW MITT ROMNEY, ANTI-INSIDER POPULIST (Michael Luo, New York Times) That Mr. Romney, the one-time leveraged-buyout artist who has spent more than $35 million of his personal fortune on his campaign, is now running as a populist insurgent may come as a surprise to some. But he has been through a variety of iterations of his message over the last year, donning at various points the image of a pragmatic problem-solving businessman, conservative ideologue and change agent… But with Mr. McCain now threatening to run away with the nomination, Mr. Romney has melded the old with the new, lobbing conservative grenades once again while talking about change. His latest script is calculated to sound the alarm over the prospect of Mr. McCain as the Republican nominee.
MORE MITT: Rocked, Romney Hangs On (Boston Hearld) The ex-Bay State governor declared himself the true heir to “the house that Reagan built” and said he won’t quit the race no matter how he fares today, the Associated Press reported. However, Romney has reportedly scheduled a campaign staff and budget review for tomorrow, signaling his intention to scale back his formidable ground network.
DANCING WITH GOP STARS: MCCAIN, ROMNEY DO FLIP-FLOP WALTZ (Michael Dobbs, Washington Post) Choosing a winner in the flip-flop wars is not easy. The record shows that Romney and McCain have both changed their positions on taxes, immigration and other issues that are important to GOP voters. Romney’s changes have garnered more attention, raising questions about his core convictions, but McCain has changed his stances more often than he is usually prepared to admit.
LIMBAUGH ON MCCAIN: IT’S BETTER TO BE RIGHT ALL THE TIME (Howard Kurtz, Washington Post) When it comes to the McCain mutiny, Limbaugh has plenty of company on the right side of the dial. Laura Ingraham endorsed Mitt Romney last week, saying, “There is no way in hell I could pull the lever for John McCain.” Sean Hannity, who also endorsed the former Massachusetts governor, regularly rips McCain. Hugh Hewitt is urging the audience for his syndicated radio show to fight for Romney against what he calls a media-generated “McCain resurrection.” But with a program heard on 600 stations, including Washington’s WMAL, Limbaugh is the loudest and brashest voice inveighing against the man he derides as “Saint John of Arizona.”
CLINTON CAMP EXPECTS NOMINATION FIGHT TO GO ON (Susan Davis, Wall Street Journal) Top aides to Sen. Hillary Clinton told reporters today that they have little doubt the nomination fight will continue beyond Tuesday’s 22 Democratic nominating contents. “We are looking at a fight that will go well beyond tomorrow, possibly decided in March, possibly decided in April, possibly decided at the convention,” said communications director Howard Wolfson. “Many of us will be making our reservations for Texas and Ohio and many beyond that.” Texas and Ohio will hold their contests March 4.
FACING FAR BIGGER CROWDS, OBAMA STRIKES A NEW NOTE (Jeff Zeleny, New York Times) As the crowds have grown, it seems, the sales pitch has softened. Gone are the days when Mr. Obama articulated a litany of specific differences he holds with his lone remaining Democratic rival, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. In the final hours of the quest for votes on Tuesday, Mr. Obama was looking forward, devoting as much time to talking about Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona.
