The atmosphere in Washington–home of the damaged (and repaired) Pentagon, the anthrax attacks and now the sniper killer–is emblematic of the country. A theme is coalescing in these final weeks of the election season: call it the Anxiety Election. President Bush remains popular (61 percent approval in the NEWSWEEK Poll) and gets high marks for his performance as sheriff in the war on terror. The Republican and Democratic parties are at rough parity in esteem.
But beneath the placid surface of such numbers is a sea of bleak concerns, rising in public consciousness after the initial defiant optimism that followed 9-11. The litany is growing familiar. Consumer confidence is down. Since the fall of 2000, stock markets have lost $9 trillion in value. The speculative (yet comforting) $5 trillion federal surplus has disappeared. Tales of boardroom banditry fill the business pages. Al Qaeda remains a mortal threat, with assorted leaders alive and talking to Al-Jazeera. The public supports the use of American military force to disarm and remove Saddam Hussein–which is why Congress voted overwhelmingly last week to authorize the president to attack if he deems it necessary. But voters are divided on how Bush should proceed, and skeptical of his motives.
Democrats look at this landscape and see victory on Nov. 5. In fact, they rushed through the vote on Iraq in hopes of turning Congress’s–and the voters’–attention to the new age of anxiety. Their brain trust (including a former president named Bill Clinton) has laid out three themes for the final weeks. One is the notion that the nation needs more Democrats to “balance” the GOP’s power in Washington–a procedural argument, but one the strategists believe in. The second is to focus on a “bumpy” economy and accuse the president of not paying it close enough attention. The third is to offer themselves–yet again–as defenders of programs such as Medicare, college loans and Social Security. GOP strategists don’t kid themselves that Bush’s popularity as commander in chief is enough to ensure GOP success. “This election is still weeks away,” fretted one White House insider. “This cake isn’t baked yet.”
But Republicans are not without advantages in the final days. One is cash. They’ll have twice as much to spend; Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have set fund-raising records this year. The Democrats can’t agree on an economic plan to counter the president’s, largely because few of them openly want to fight his defense-spending plans or his tax cut. Grass-roots Democrats are angry that their congressional leaders failed to confront Bush forcefully on Iraq. Last-minute donations are flagging, as could Democratic turnout on Election Day. The GOP’s last and highest card is Bush, who will hit the road for the final two weeks preaching a sermon of post-9-11 revival, patriotism and optimism as the American Way. That may not calm an anxious nation–his own morning briefings now include an update on the sniper–but the president will settle for winning back the Senate.
