Speaking publicly for the first time at a downtown news conference, Thaksin insisted he had returned to live as a private citizen and “die on Thai soil.”
Yet it’s hard to find many Thais in this country of 63 million who believe that—least of all, the generals, opposition leaders and the political old guard that conspired to oust him in a bloodless military coup almost 18 months ago. Indeed, Thaksin remains a central figure in Thai politics; he commands the loyalty of the country’s poor majority, and in parliamentary elections last December a political party he championed from exile in London won a sweeping victory. His surprise homecoming (he was not expected to return before April) proved once again that Thaksin has a unique ability to grab the political initiative and keep his opponents off balance.
“Thai politics have moved to a new stage with Thaksin’s return,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. “It’s Thaksin’s call. How he wants to run things is up to him. It’s his time now, and we have to see how he wants to play his winning hand.”
But will he return to power? Analysts generally suspect that he wants to in some capacity, despite his oft-repeated statement, made again on Thursday, that “I will not return to the political stage.” Still, there are barriers he would have to overcome. For starters, the specifics of his alliance with Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej remain murky. Samak’s ruling People’s Power Party is a Thaksin proxy group, and after its landslide victory in the parliamentary elections the country’s new leader restated his campaign vow to pardon Thaksin and other members of his administration who face corruption and abuse of power charges. Yet it is unclear whether—or how—they might hand power to their returning hero, or if the powerful Thai military would allow any such maneuver.
In addition, Thaksin still must face charges of abuse of power and corruption during his five years as prime minister. After leaving the airport on Thursday, he was granted bail by the Supreme Court and the attorney general, either of which could have demanded that he be detained before trial. Opposition groups have vowed to closely monitor the former prime minister and called on the government to ensure transparency in prosecutions against him.
Another clue of potential trouble came on the eve of Thaksin’s homecoming, when Samak told his supporters to keep the welcoming reception low-key, saying that “too many people turning up to welcome him back would make others green with envy.” Samak’s bigger fear may have been political unrest. After rumors of Thaksin’s imminent arrival began swirling on Monday, a group that launched anti-Thaksin street protests in early 2006 and later supported the coup, the People’s Alliance for Democracy, threatened to revive the mass demonstrations that paralyzed Bangkok two years ago.
One of their leaders, media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul, even went on national television and characterized Thailand’s newly elected government as “the Thaksin regime” and said he would fight against any attempts to help Thaksin. “I am ready to face any cabinet minister, starting with Interior Minister Pol Capt Chalerm Yubamrung,” he said.
No anti-Thaksin protests of any import have yet materialized.
The former prime minister’s return is merely the latest embarrassment for the junta leaders who surrendered power two months ago. After their coup the junta banned Thaksin’s political party, Thai Rak Thai, for five years and charged the billionaire-turned-prime minister with abuse of power and corruption. Yet the junta’s political missteps and mismanagement of the Thai economy rendered the generals deeply unpopular. And when they honored their pledge to restore democracy, the country’s predominantly poor and rural voters promptly cast their votes for the pro-Thaksin PPP.
The opposition is deeply distrustful of the former leader’s pledge to remain a private citizen. “In the past he has said things many times and not done what he said,” warns Ongart Klampaiboon, spokesman for the Democratic Party, which lost badly in the December vote. “In the future he may re-enter politics and find some reason to explain [his decision] to the Thai people.” Judging from the mood on the streets of Bangkok, few would object to such a change of heart.
